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Some trading wisdom, tools and information I picked up along the way that helped me be a better trader. Maybe it can help you too.
Its a bit lengthy and I tried to condense it as much as I can. So take everything at a high level as each subject is has a lot more depth but fundamentally if you distill it down its just taking simple things and applying your experience using them to add nuance and better deploy them. There are exceptions to everything that you will learn with experience or have already learned. If you know something extra or something to add to it to implement it better or more accurately. Then great! However, my intention of this post is just a high level overview. Trading can be far too nuanced to go into in this post and would take forever to type up every exception (not to mention the traders individual personality). If you take the general information as a starting point, hopefully you will learn the edge cases long the way and learn how to use the more effectively if you end up using them. I apologize in advice for any errors or typos. Introduction After reflecting on my fun (cough) trading journey that was more akin to rolling around on broken glass and wondering if brown glass will help me predict market direction better than green glass. Buying a $100 indicator at 2 am when I was acting a fool, looking at it and going at and going "This is a piece of lagging crap, I miss out on a large part of the fundamental move and never using it for even one trade". All while struggling with massive over trading and bad habits because I would get bored watching a single well placed trade on fold for the day. Also, I wanted to get rich quick. On top all of that I had a terminal Stage 4 case of FOMO on every time the price would move up and then down then back up. Just think about all those extra pips I could have trading both directions as it moves across the chart! I can just sell right when it goes down, then buy right before it goes up again. Its so easy right? Well, turns out it was not as easy as I thought and I lost a fair chunk of change and hit my head against the wall a lot until it clicked. Which is how I came up with a mixed bag of things that I now call "Trade the Trade" which helped support how I wanted to trade so I can still trade intra day price action like a rabid money without throwing away all my bananas. Why Make This Post? - Core Topic of Discussion I wish to share a concept I came up with that helped me become a reliable trader. Support the weakness of how I like to trade. Also, explaining what I do helps reinforce my understanding of the information I share as I have to put words to it and not just use internalized processes. I came up with a method that helped me get my head straight when trading intra day. I call it "Trade the Trade" as I am making mini trades inside of a trade setup I make from analysis on a higher timeframe that would take multiple days to unfold or longer. I will share information, principles, techniques I used and learned from others I talked to on the internet (mixed bag of folks from armatures to professionals, and random internet people) that helped me form a trading style that worked for me. Even people who are not good at trading can say something that might make it click in your head so I would absorbed all the information I could get.I will share the details of how I approach the methodology and the tools in my trading belt that I picked up by filtering through many tools, indicators strategies and witchcraft. Hopefully you read something that ends up helping you be a better trader. I learned a lot from people who make community posts so I wanted to give back now that I got my ducks in a row. General Trading Advice If your struggling finding your own trading style, fixing weakness's in it, getting started, being reliably profitable or have no framework to build yourself higher with, hopefully you can use the below advice to help provide some direction or clarity to moving forward to be a better trader.
KEEP IT SIMPLE. Do not throw a million things on your chart from the get go or over analyzing what the market is doing while trying to learn the basics. Tons of stuff on your chart can actually slow your learning by distracting your focus on all your bells and whistles and not the price action.
PRICE ACTION. Learn how to read price action. Not just the common formations, but larger groups of bars that form the market structure. Those formations carry more weight the higher the time frame they form on. If struggle to understand what is going on or what your looking at, move to a higher time frame.
INDICATORS. If you do use them you should try to understand how every indicator you use calculates its values. Many indicators are lagging indicators, understanding how it calculates the values can help you learn how to identify the market structure before the indicator would trigger a signal . This will help you understand why the signal is a lagged signal. If you understand that you can easily learn to look at the price action right before the signal and learn to watch for that price action on top of it almost trigging a signal so you can get in at a better position and assume less downside risk. I recommend using no more than 1-2 indicators for simplicity, but your free to use as many as you think you think you need or works for your strategy/trading style.
PSYCOLOGY. First, FOMO is real, don't feed the beast. When you trade you should always have an entry and exit. If you miss your entry do not chase it, wait for a new entry. At its core trading is gambling and your looking for an edge against the house (the other market participants). With that in mind, treat as such. Do not risk more than you can afford to lose. If you are afraid to lose it will negatively effect your trade decisions. Finally, be honest with your self and bad trading happens. No one is going to play trade cop and keep you in line, that's your job.
TRADE DECISION MARKING: Before you enter any trade you should have an entry and exit area. As you learn price action you will get better entries and better exits. Use a larger zone and stop loss at the start while learning. Then you can tighten it up as you gain experience. If you do not have a area you wish to exit, or you are entering because "the markets looking like its gonna go up". Do not enter the trade. Have a reason for everything you do, if you cannot logically explain why then you probably should not be doing it.
ROBOTS/ALGOS: Loved by some, hated by many who lost it all to one, and surrounded by scams on the internet. If you make your own, find a legit one that works and paid for it or lost it all on a crappy one, more power to ya. I do not use robots because I do not like having a robot in control of my money. There is too many edge cases for me to be ok with it.However, the best piece of advice about algos was that the guy had a algo/robot for each market condition (trending/ranging) and would make personalized versions of each for currency pairs as each one has its own personality and can make the same type of movement along side another currency pair but the price action can look way different or the move can be lagged or leading. So whenever he does his own analysis and he sees a trend, he turns the trend trading robot on. If the trend stops, and it starts to range he turns the range trading robot on. He uses robots to trade the market types that he is bad at trading. For example, I suck at trend trading because I just suck at sitting on my hands and letting my trade do its thing.
Trade the Trade - The Methodology
Base Principles These are the base principles I use behind "Trade the Trade". Its called that because you are technically trading inside your larger high time frame trade as it hopefully goes as you have analyzed with the trade setup. It allows you to scratch that intraday trading itch, while not being blind to the bigger market at play. It can help make sense of why the price respects, rejects or flat out ignores support/resistance/pivots.
Trade Setup: Find a trade setup using high level time frames (daily, 4hr, or 1hr time frames). The trade setup will be used as a base for starting to figure out a bias for the markets direction for that day.
Indicator Data: Check any indicators you use (I use Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index) for any useful information on higher timeframes.
Support Resistance: See if any support/resistance/pivot points are in currently being tested/resisted by the price. Also check for any that are within reach so they might become in play through out the day throughout the day (which can influence your bias at least until the price reaches it if it was already moving that direction from previous days/weeks price action).
Currency Strength/Weakness: I use the TradeVision currency strength/weakness dashboard to see if the strength/weakness supports the narrative of my trade and as an early indicator when to keep a closer eye for signs of the price reversing.Without the tool, the same concept can be someone accomplished with fundamentals and checking for higher level trends and checking cross currency pairs for trends as well to indicate strength/weakness, ranging (and where it is in that range) or try to get some general bias from a higher level chart that may help you out. However, it wont help you intra day unless your monitoring the currency's index or a bunch of charts related to the currency.
Watch For Trading Opportunities: Personally I make a mental short list and alerts on TradingView of currency pairs that are close to key levels and so I get a notification if it reaches there so I can check it out. I am not against trading both directions, I just try to trade my bias before the market tries to commit to a direction. Then if I get out of that trade I will scalp against the trend of the day and hold trades longer that are with it.Then when you see a opportunity assume the directional bias you made up earlier (unless the market solidly confirms with price action the direction while waiting for an entry) by trying to look for additional confirmation via indicators, price action on support/resistances etc on the low level time frame or higher level ones like hourly/4hr as the day goes on when the price reaches key areas or makes new market structures to get a good spot to enter a trade in the direction of your bias.Then enter your trade and use the market structures to determine how much of a stop you need. Once your in the trade just monitor it and watch the price action/indicators/tools you use to see if its at risk of going against you. If you really believe the market wont reach your TP and looks like its going to turn against you, then close the trade. Don't just hold on to it for principle and let it draw down on principle or the hope it does not hit your stop loss.
Trade Duration Hold your trades as long or little as you want that fits your personality and trading style/trade analysis. Personally I do not hold trades past the end of the day (I do in some cases when a strong trend folds) and I do not hold trades over the weekends. My TP targets are always places I think it can reach within the day. Typically I try to be flat before I sleep and trade intra day price movements only. Just depends on the higher level outlook, I have to get in at really good prices for me to want to hold a trade and it has to be going strong. Then I will set a slightly aggressive stop on it before I leave. I do know several people that swing trade and hold trades for a long period of time. That is just not a trading style that works for me.
Enhance Your Success Rate Below is information I picked up over the years that helped me enhance my success rate with not only guessing intra day market bias (even if it has not broken into the trend for the day yet (aka pre London open when the end of Asia likes to act funny sometimes), but also with trading price action intra day. People always say "When you enter a trade have an entry and exits. I am of the belief that most people do not have problem with the entry, its the exit. They either hold too long, or don't hold long enough. With the below tools, drawings, or instruments, hopefully you can increase your individual probability of a successful trade. **P.S.*\* Your mileage will vary depending on your ability to correctly draw, implement and interpret the below items. They take time and practice to implement with a high degree of proficiency. If you have any questions about how to do that with anything listed, comment below and I will reply as I can. I don't want to answer the same question a million times in a pm. Tools and Methods Used This is just a high level overview of what I use. Each one of the actions I could go way more in-depth on but I would be here for a week typing something up of I did that. So take the information as a base level understanding of how I use the method or tool. There is always nuance and edge cases that you learn from experience.
I keep a general high level Macro outlook for currencies. I dont get too deep into Fundamentals and just keep an eye out for news. If I am already in a trade I will hold it if its far enough away from my entry. However, I wont enter right before/during news as it can invalidate your setup.
I started with the basics of learning the standard price action formations/patterns and candles. You can find tons of free info on that online, google is your friend. Then I stared at charts and said "why did the price do that or do this etc" then after a while I started to understand what's happening without having to think about it and I can see the market structure without having to look as closely as I did in the past.
After many many hours of staring at 5 min charts for 15 hours a day 5 days a week I learned how to look at 5 min charts and be like "Oh that's a hammer on the 15 min etc. If you keep track of time you can do the same for hourly candles as well and you will start to see market structure naturally. However I typically trade in a two chart panel window so I have a 15 min and 5 min chart up when trading intra day so I dont have to think too hard about it.
Draw support resistance lines on Daily/4hr timeframes. I prefer to use body of the candle instead of the wick for support/resistance.
You can find support/resistance liquidity levels through out the day as well and trade those if the price retraces back through levels its already been through that same day.
It would be a bit length to explain exactly the best place to draw them. If your unsure there is plenty of free resources on the internet. Just try to use your head and look for price levels where the price was "Supported" or it "Resisted" that price level then slap a line on it. Draw as few or as many lines as you feel helps you and your style. I tend to lean on the side of fewer. I typically do about 6 lines main support/resistances (3 of each).
Draw two Fibonacci Extensions. One on the daily timeframe, and then one on the 4hr time frame. Then you can trade the Fibonacci levels and use them for TP targets or entry zones if price action respects the level. Also you can use it along with support/resistance and pivots if they happen to line up or are very close.
I cannot really figure out how to put it into words how to draw a Fib if you dont know how. I will have to make a picture to demonstrate it. If your interested post below and I will draw one up and post a link. Probably the easiest way to understand. Just keep in mind the Fib you draw on the 4hr time frame will be inside the daily timeframe one.
The TradeVision2020 dashboard that I use just helps me keep a tab on the current market post plus any swing strength/momentum a currency might have on higher time frames. Helps me look for shifts in the market or confirmation that the bias it already has in momentum is continuing. I have found that often currencies when they get really/weak or strong might continue for several days or even longer like a full week or more. We recently had what felt like 1 week or so of flat out Yen weakness which was making some things wonky. All it does is allow me to look at the dashboard instead of a million other charts.
I use two that work well for my intra day style. The Stochastic RSI is just like a RSI but its faster. The second is the Relative Vigor Index which I use to detect swings in momentum and divergences in bullish/bearish momentum. I have used many others in the past, but as I have grown and got better as a trader I have found making my analysis simpler has improved my trading.I dont like the whole idea of have 43 different indicators on 32 different time frames light up a dashboard to be green for me to enter a trade. With how I do it now, I have a clear understanding of what I expect to happen and why. That way when it does happen I understand the move and dont get freaked out if the market moves funny after I am in the trade.
Conclusion I use the above tools/indicators/resources/philosophy's to trade intra day price action that sometimes ends up as noise in the grand scheme of the markets movement.use that method until the price action for the day proves the bias assumption wrong. Also you can couple that with things like Stoch RSI + Relative Vigor Index to find divergences which can increase the probability of your targeted guesses. Trade Example from Yesterday This is an example of a trade I took today and why I took it. I used the following core areas to make my trade decision.
Fundamental Bias: I already had a bullish fundamental outlook on EUUSD with expecting the markets to price in future similes due a higher an higher chance of Biden winning on paper as the election closed in and a "Blue wave" coming which would lead to a weaker dollar. Also, the Euro Zone is getting hammered with COVID pretty hard plus Brexit drama so I had a strong Euro bias.NOTE: As frame of reference, all the other pairs I trade I traded as if they were ranging and trade a range. Markets are messed up right now.
Currency Strength/Weakness: I use a tool that gives me a currency strength/weakness dashboard called TradeVision2020. Helps me track individual currency strength/weakness intra day. Took me about a month to get used to it, but helps me keep track of intra day strength/weakness that can add a bias to trade direction as the day unfolds. Like "Will this run have a 2nd or 3rd push higher" or "I should look to TP at the first sign of weakness in the push" type bias data. You still got to use your brain and figure out the best decision. It wont make choices for you, its only a guide.NOTE: I am not trying to adverse the tool (if providing the code is against sub rules let me know), its just a tool I use every day that helps me with directional bias calls. I am sharing the coupon code that was given to me when I found out about the tool in the TradingView forex chatroom and the guy gave me the code to use when I signed up. I dont want someone to read the name and want to try it out then overpay for no reason. The coupon will give you 40% off. Coupon Code: 3F7A0T5T
Higher Timeframe Analysis: Detected some early signs of Bearish Divergence on the 1hr chart using a on a higher time frame using a Stochastic RSI. Then I saw more confirmation on 5 min charts using Relative Vigor Index to help time my entry mid session.
Pivot Points: I treat pivot points like support/resistance and trade them as such using price action to give me some idea how its being treated by the market. Pretty straight forward.
It may seem like a lot of stuff to process on the fly while trying to figure out live price action but, for the fundamental bias for a pair should already baked in your mindset for any currency pair you trade. For the currency strength/weakness I stare at the dashboard 12-15 hours a day so I am always trying to keep a pulse on what's going or shifts so that's not really a factor when I want to enter as I would not look to enter if I felt the market was shifting against me. Then the higher timeframe analysis had already happened when I woke up, so it was a game of "Stare at the 5 min chart until the price does something interesting" Trade Example: Today , I went long EUUSD long bias when I first looked at the chart after waking up around 9-10pm Eastern. Fortunately, the first large drop had already happened so I had a easy baseline price movement to work with. I then used tool for currency strength/weakness monitoring, Pivot Points, and bearish divergence detected using Stochastic RSI and Relative Vigor Index. I first noticed Bearish Divergence on the 1hr time frame using the Stochastic RSI and got confirmation intra day on the 5 min time frame with the Relative Vigor Index. I ended up buying the second mini dip around midnight Eastern because it was already dancing along the pivot point that the price had been dancing along since the big drop below the pivot point and dipped below it and then shortly closed back above it. I put a stop loss below the first large dip. With a TP goal of the middle point pivot line Then I waited for confirmation or invalidation of my trade. I ended up getting confirmation with Bearish Divergence from the second large dip so I tightened up my stop to below that smaller drip and waited for the London open. Not only was it not a lower low, I could see the divergence with the Relative Vigor Index. It then ran into London and kept going with tons of momentum. Blew past my TP target so I let it run to see where the momentum stopped. Ended up TP'ing at the Pivot Point support/resistance above the middle pivot line. Random Note: The Asian session has its own unique price action characteristics that happen regularly enough that you can easily trade them when they happen with high degrees of success. It takes time to learn them all and confidently trade them as its happening. If you trade Asia you should learn to recognize them as they can fake you out if you do not understand what's going on. TL;DR At the end of the day there is no magic solution that just works. You have to find out what works for you and then what people say works for them. Test it out and see if it works for you or if you can adapt it to work for you. If it does not work or your just not interested then ignore it. At the end of the day, you have to use your brain to make correct trading decisions. Blindly following indicators may work sometimes in certain market conditions, but trading with information you don't understand can burn you just as easily as help you. Its like playing with fire. So, get out there and grind it out. It will either click or it wont. Not everyone has the mindset or is capable of changing to be a successful trader. Trading is gambling, you do all this work to get a edge on the house. Trading without the edge or an edge you understand how to use will only leave your broker happy in the end.
This thread is the direct continuation of my previous entry, which you can find here. I have the feeling my rambles may be long, so I'm not going to repeat anything I already said in my previous post for the sake of keeping this brief. What is this? I am backtesting the strategy shared by ParallaxFx. I have just completed my second run of testing, and I am here to share my results with those who are interested. If you want to read more about the strategy, go to my previous thread where I linked it. What changed? Instead of using a fixed target of the -100.0 Fibonacci extension, I tracked both the -61.8 and the -100.0 targets. ParallaxFx used the -61.8 as a target, but never tried the second one, so I wanted to compare the two and see what happens. Where can I see your backtested result? I am going to do something I hope I won't regret and share the link to my spreadsheet. Hopefully I won't be doxxed, but I think I should be fine. You can find my spreadsheet at this link. There are a lot of entries, so it may take a while for them to load. In the "Trades" tab, you will find every trade I backtested with an attached screenshot and the results it would have had with the extended and the unextended target. You can see the UNCOMPOUNDED equity curve in the Summary tab, together with the overall statistics for the system. What was the sample size? I backtested on the Daily chart, from January 2017 to December 2019, over 28 currency pairs. I took a total of 310 trades - although keep in mind that every position is most often composed by two entries, meaning that you can roughly halve this number. What is the bottom line? If you're not interested in the details, here are the stats of the strategy based on how I traded it.
Extended: 223.46 R of return, 2.34 of profit factor, 0.72 R of expected value, 46.13% winrate. The average win is 2.72 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
Unextended: 172.20 R of return, 2.19 of profit factor, 0.56 R of expected value, 53.23% winrate. The average win is 1.92 R while the average loss is -1.00 R.
The highest drawdown for both systems was 18 R. This seems like a lot, but remember you're splitting risk in half.
Here you can see the two uncompounded equity curves side by side: red is unextended and blue is extended. Who wins? The test suggests the strategy to be more profitable with the extended target. In addition, most of the trades that reached the unextended target but reversed before reaching the extended, were trades that I would have most likely not have taken with the extented target. This is because there was a resistance/support area in the way of the -100.0 extension level, but there was enough room for price to reach the -61.8 level. I will probably trade this strategy using the -100.0 level as target, unless there is an area in the way. In that case I will go for the unextended target. Drawdown management The expected losing streak for this system, using the extended target, is 7 trades in a row in a sample size of 100 trades. My goal is to have a drawdown cap of 4%, so my risk per trade will be 0.54%. If I ever find myself in a losing streak of more than 8 trades, I will reduce my risk per trade further. What's next? I'll be taking this strategy live. The wisest move would be to repeat the same testing over lower timeframes to verify the edge plays out there as well, but I would not be able to trust my results because I would have vague memories of where price went because of the testing I just did. I also believe markets are fractals, so I see no reason why this wouldn't work on lower timeframes. Before going live, I will expand this spreadsheet to include more specific analysis and I will continue backtesting at a slower pace. The goal is to reach 20 years of backtesting over these 28 pairs and put everything into this spreadsheet. It's not something I will do overnight, but I'll probably do one year every odd day, and maybe a couple more during the weekend. I think I don't have much else to add. I like the strategy. Feel free to ask questions.
Part III - My 10 Minutes/Day Trading Strategy You can find Part II here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h7m1jh/part_ii_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/ Okay I’ve thought about what to include in Part 3 and this is what I’ve landed on: Some technical nuances and tricks that build on Parts I and II. I was going to include entry and exit points in Part III but it would be waaaay too long if I did. So that will have to wait for Part 4 or 5. There’s some really good stuff in this post though, I promise. The stuff in this post will lay the foundation for the options you will have in terms of determining your entry and exit points. Technical Nuances & Tricks: In this section I want to discuss some techniques that are optional to use. I am going to keep this fairly simple and focus on 2 main topics: fibonacci and horizontal levels of support and resistance. Horizontal Support and Resistance:
There are many ways of identifying support and resistance. I personally subscribe to the K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple, Stupid!) method when using this strategy.
When I identify a strategy setup (Off BB, Stochs overbought/oversold, indecision candle + setup candle) I will simply look to the left and see if there is any prior support or resistance that lines up with the technical strategy. I will also look for prior support or resistance levels to make sure they are not in the way of my target (will cover targets in the next subsection)
Support and Resistance are not always clear lines drawn in the sand. Usually they are areas. Areas of prior demand and/or prior oversupply in the market.
IF you want a mechanistic manner of identifying support and resistance then here’s an easy indicator: load up the Bill Williams Fractal Indicator and simply look for groupings of fractals near highs and lows of the market
KEEP AN EYE ON THE STOCHASTICS IN EACH OF THESE EXAMPLES
The way I apply fibonacci in my “normal” trading does require a lot of discretion. And it is this discretionary element that trips up a lot of traders and scares them off using fibonacci.
This strategy removes ANY DISCRETION involved in using fibonacci levels. This couldn’t be more in keeping with the entire K.I.S.S. philosophy of this trading strategy
We use Fibonacci in this strategy as an OPTIONAL tool. If you decide to use Fibonacci with this strategy, the best way of using it will be to have a mechanistic method for determining entry and exit points.
Fibonacci retracement levels can be used for limit entry orders and stop loss orders.
Fibonacci extension levels can be used for take profit orders
You can copy my fibonacci settings in the screenshot below. I use the following fibonacci % levels:
It really is a stupidly simple way we will draw the fibs (note: it will be the SAME WAY on every single trade). We simply draw the fibs over the setup candle. ALWAYS draw the fibs in the direction that price is moving ie: from left to right. So if you have a bullish setup candle you draw your fibs from the LOW to the HIGH of the setup candle. If you have a bearish setup candle you will draw the fibs from the HIGH of the candle to the LOW of the candle. I will cover in a future post which levels we use for entry and exit, although many of you will be able to figure it out quickly. Examples below:
Access Part I here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h0iwbu/part_i_my_10_minuteday_trading_strategy/ Welcome to Part II of this ongoing series. How many parts will there be? No idea. At least 4-5, I guess. I'd rather have this broken down into digestible chunks than just fire hose you with information. Part I was really just a primer. If I'm using the whole baking a cake analogy, then in Part I we covered what kind of cake we're baking. I will not cover in this post where we look for entries and exits, that's coming next. Part II is going to cover what ingredients we need and why we need those ingredients in greater detail. What Kind Of Strategy Is This Again?It's my 10 minutes per day, trading strategy. I think the beauty of this strategy is that it allows you to take a good number of trader per week without having to commit an inordinate amount of time to the screens. This is both a mean reversion and trend-continuation based strategy. It is dead simple to learn and apply. I'd expect a 10 year old to be able to make money with this. The List Of Ingredients & Why We Use These Particular Ingredients *I will have an image at the end of the post showing a textbook long and short setup* Bollinger Bands: Bollinger Bands (BB) have a base line (standard is the 20SMA, which is also what we will use for this strategy) and two other trend lines (known as the upper Bollinger band [UBB] and lower Bollinger band [LBB]) plotted 2 standard deviations away from the 20SMA. The idea behind BB is deviously simple - the vast majority of price action, approx. 90%, takes place in between the two bands. In other words, when price trades off the UBB or LBB, you could consider prices to be overbought/oversold. However, just because something is OVERbought does NOT mean its run is OVER. Therefore we need additional tools to make sure we are using the BB as effectively as possible. TLDR: BBhelp contextualize where to look for our technical setups using this strategy. Finding the candle/bar pattern is not enough. We need to make sure the setup is in the 'right' part of the chart. We accomplish that using the BB. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (Stochs) is a secondary momentum indicator. Because it is an oscillator that means the signals it generates are range-bound between 0 and 100. There are tons of momentum indicators out there. Theoretically you could swap out the Stochs for RSI or MACD. My hunch is that you won't see a measurable statistical difference in performance if you do. So why Stochs? Because I like the fact you have the %K and %D lines (you can think of them as moving averages) and the fact that the %K and %D lines crossover is a helpful visual aid. Like any other momentum indicator, the Stochs will generate overbought and oversold signals. We use the Stochs to help back up what the BB are telling us. If price is trading at, or even broken out of, the UBB and Stochs are also veeeery overbought that can be potentially useful information. It doesn't mean we have a trade necessarily, but it is a helpful piece of data. Fibonacci Retracement & Extension Tool: This tool is OPTIONAL. The only reason I use this tool for this strategy is to integrate a mechanistic means of entry and exit. In other words, we can use fibonacci levels to place limit orders for entry and profit taking, and a stop order to get us out for our pre-defined risk allocation to each particular trade. If you DON'T want to use the fibs, that is perfectly okay. It just means you will add a more discretionary layer to this strategy Candlestick/Bar Patterns: There isn't a whole lot to say here. We look for ONE formation over, and over, and over again. An indecision bar (small body, doesn't close on its highs or lows) followed by the setup bar which is an outside bar or an engulfing bar. It doesn't particularly matter if the setup bar is an engulfing bar or outside bar. What matters is that for a long trade the setup bar makes a HIGHER HIGH and has a HIGHER CLOSE relative to the indecision bar. The opposite for a short trade setup. The bar formation is what ultimately serves as the trigger for placing orders to take a trade. *MOVING ON* Now We Get Into The Setup Itself:There are 3 places where we look for trades using this strategy:
Short off the UBB (Here we want to see Stochastics overbought and crossing down. Bearish divergence is even better)
Long off the LBB (Here we want to see Stochastics oversold and crossing up. Bullish divergence is even better)
Long/Short off the Middle Bollinger Band (Here if you are looking for a short trade off the MBB you ideally want Stochs overbought. Vice versa for a long trade. NOTE: Often when taking trades off the MBB, Stochs WON'T go overbought/oversold. Because this doesn't happen often, I don't let it stop me from taking trades off the MBB.)
Part IV - Entry Options Hey everyone, you can find Part III of this series here: https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/h97sv7/part_iii_my_10_minutesday_trading_strategy/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf Welcome to Part IV where I will be discussing various entry options. I’ve said this before, but it is worth repeating here as well: identifying a technical setup is one thing. Making money off of that setup is a whole other thing. This is precisely why most signal services fail. While the quality of the signal provider is one thing to consider, the other thing to take into account is that it is very difficult to blindly trade like somebody else - even if they give you their exact entry and exit points. This is why I really want to focus on figuring out how to make MY strategy work for YOU. I will share with you a few different options for entries based on the strategy’s prototypical setup. But it is 100% on you to figure out what suits your trading style, personality, and lifestyle the best. Part V will cover exit options. Part VI will cover risk allocation & management Let’s get on with it. Basic Notes On Entries: We are assuming that all entries are referring to a setup that forms at 5pm EST. I am using 5pm EST because that is when the most trading opportunities have the potential of occurring based on this strategy. It is also when you will see the spreads widen out as the NY Session comes to a close. Therefore, you will not want to take a market order right at 5pm EST. Usually the spreads start narrowing again by 6pm EST.
Limit order (we will use fibonacci retracements to figure out where to place our limit entry orders)
Stop order (we can set a stop order beyond the setup candle’s high/low. I personally do not recommend this particular method, but I am including it here because one trader that uses this strategy has had success with it and prefers it)
The big difference between the stop order and the other entry types is pretty simple. If you are using a stop order to get into the trade, you will not have as good a risk to reward ratio as a trader that used a limit order to get into the trade. The advantage to using a stop order is that there will be some trades where you do not enter the trade because price never went beyond the high/low point of the setup candle. This means you avoid taking a loss on those trades whereas a trader who used a limit or market order to get into the trade would take a loss. The other advantage is that there may be trade setups where the limit orders don’t get filled but the stop order will. I have NOT statistically tested stop orders vs the other order types. If you want to know what works best for you, it is on you to do the testing. Okay let’s take a deeper look now into the different ways we can enter:
Limit order: We will draw our fibonacci retracement levels over the setup candle (I have updated the Fibonacci levels I use in Part III. Replaced the old screenshot with the new one with up-to-date levels). We will then look to place our limit orders just below (IF a short trade setup) / above (IF a long trade setup) the 23.6% and 38.2% Retracement levels. When I say just below or above, I am referring to the spread amount at minimum. However more above/below you want to go is up to you and your testing. Sometimes your limit orders get filled rather quickly. Sometimes they take longer (hours longer). I cancel unfilled Retracement orders if price has run to a fiboancci extension level without filling me on the trade. The obvious benefit to limit orders is that you can set your orders and then simply walk away from the screens. IF the setup candle closes past its 23.6% Retracement level then you will only take ONE limit order off the 38.2%.
Market order: Since we will not be taking a market order trade right at 5pm EST, this leaves us with options. Because a market order does not guarantee us a fill price, we do have some flexibility vs taking strict limit orders. The risk you run with using limit orders is that if your price is not met, you do not get filled. So for example, let’s say it is 6pm EST and the spreads begin to narrow once more and price just so happens to trade right around the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement area. This is a great opportunity to simply take a market order and get into the trade. Let’s say, however, that price never retraced back into the setup candle and it looks like the trade may simply run to its profit target. What do you do? Well, you can still take a market order to get into the trade… OR you can wait to see if price will retrace back into the candle later on… OR you can write the trade off because price has already run to a fibonacci extension level. The bottom line is that if you have flexibility and you have options. **NOTE: On setups that occur outside the 5pm hour, you can obviously take market orders as soon as the setup bar closes without worrying about unusual spreads)**
Stop order: Stop orders are similar to limit orders in that you can set the orders and then walk away from the screens. If you are using stop orders you will not split your order into several parts. You will simply take one order. You will set the stop order just beyond the high/low of the setup candle.
My preferred method of entry: I like to combine the market and limit entry options myself. Again - assuming a 5pm EST setup here is what I do:
Set limit orders at 38.2 and 61.8% Retracement levels and walk away. If I get a notification that my 23.6% order got triggered, I don’t have to come back to my screens. If I don’t get a notification that my 23.6% order got triggered by 6pm EST, I’ll come back to the trade setup and execute a market order and then delete the 23.6% order. I leave the 38.2% limit order as is. Hopefully it triggers, but if it doesn’t then at least I have half my position on. IF it is a situation where the setup candle closes past its 23.6% Retracement then I will only take 1 order, whether it is the market or the limit.
$3.19 / Weekly $3.55 / Monthly $3.87 / Monthly $4.24 / Daily $4.69 / Weekly $5.00 / Daily $5.23 / Monthly $5.89 / Weekly $6.37 / Weekly $7.00 / Weekly $7.50 / Daily $7.82 / Monthly $8.49 / Weekly $8.90 / Daily (my target) (127 fib extension) $9.52 / Monthly Here's a photo of me if it gets anywhere above my Target of $8.90, floating off into the next tendies dimension: https://preview.redd.it/x5os5x2bg4951.jpg?width=522&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dcafe3fe21d850ce35cbd769d06590a91a7dd68 The reason the first resistance points are strike-through is because the previous spike up on Juneteenth went through all those prices, and that usually indicates weaker resistance on moves up in the near term future. I don't really expect to see a big rejection off of any of those points this week, but its worth being aware of those levels $8.90 is my price target because of the 127 fibonacci extension of the previous move up to $7.24. The price has already gone up 59% from where I bought so I'll start scaling out of my positions at $6 and higher. My stop loss is at break even ($2.12) The blue square highlights that this last move down went further than a 78.6% retracement, indicating a pump and dump + very volatile swings in price. Play cautiously ! Practice safe trading this week, lets make it rain tendies.
Hello, new traders. Here are a few words from my four and a half years of experience.
Hey! I’m a full time currency and cryptocurrency trader, I need to point out a few major fallacies and misconceptions I frequently see in this community and others. First up. If it’s your first year trading expect to fail. Actually, if there was a contract I could buy that’d pay me out if you ended up liquidating your account in the next 12 months, I’d literally bet on your failure. You need to immediately reduce your trading account to 1/10th of its original size for your first year of trading. Seriously, do it. You are betting that you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow, typically with basic patterns or default setting indicators with no experience. Which brings me to my next point. Your strategy is not your identity, stop treating what you use to trade as dogma. That indicator or pattern you’re using, can you tell me why it works? Not HOW to use it, but what fundamental paradigm it uses to accurately predict future price action. There are legitimate answers, but trying to use your indicators/patterns without understanding why is like driving across the country without knowing how to open or what’s inside the hood or your car. Sure, you’re going to get pretty far, but eventually it’ll break down and you won’t have a clue what to do, stranded and starving in the middle of the desert. Chances are, while you were reading this you came up with one of three answers in your head as to why your indicatopattern works. Let me guess. “Everyone else uses it, it’s made me money so far, it’s natures law (for you Fibonacci folks,) or it’s a proven standard.” All of those are appeal to authority fallacies. For instance.... How does a compass work? Are the answers “well everybody else uses compasses” or “compasses are a proven standard” WHY a compass works? If you don’t know how a compass works and you’re lost, you aren’t going to know what variables will stop the compass from working. You might be in the Southern Hemisphere, that’d lead you in the exact opposite direction, but you wouldn’t know it because you DON’T KNOW WHY it works. Then die of starvation shortly after because you didn’t understand a tool paramount to your survival and couldn’t find your way back to civilization. If you’re lost in the ocean of institutional investors, AT LEAST understand why your tools work. For instance, why does divergence work? You probably know that divergence represents a reversal. Divergence doesn’t form because of “price” or “its losing momentum,” divergence forms because an oscillator defines a data set that expands and contracts based on the activity in the period lookback you define for it. When you have an expanding data set, it requires increasingly drastic moves to register the same “extreme” values. If you have a tight data set and you have a huge outlier, the data set widens to compensate with every candle close. So now that you have a wider data set, an equal move would register as a less extreme event as defined by the oscillator. That’s why divergence forms/works. Seriously, it’s worth learning these things. Unless you can explain why something works like I just did with divergence you shouldn’t EVER use it in your arsenal. Then if you do take the time to learn the “why,” you’ll start realizing that a lot of the commonly accepted tools are fundamentally broken. For instance, with your new understanding of divergence, think about overbought or oversold signals. Why would a new outlier of a data set imply a return to the center of the data set if the data set is in an active state of expansion, CAUSED by the outlier? Now if you’re relying on an appeal to authority fallacy for understanding, could it be that the authority that presented the information doesn’t have your best interest at heart? Breakout patterns for example. If you have a bull flag, and you’re betting on bullish trend continuation, I’ll take a wild guess about where you put your stop loss. Oh, below the bull flag? Large players know this and will scoop up your stops before pushing price up. How often have you said, “wow, I was right but I stopped out just before trend continuation!” The “golden standard” of technical analysis is only so to make the masses of retail traders a predictable herd of cattle. Also, stay away from entirely subjective strategies that will always appear correct in hindsight. Oh, how many times have you redrawn that Elliot wave extension to match what happened instead of what you predicted? Don’t you dare bring up the Fibonacci to justify your subjective drawings either. Fibonacci doesn’t work because “it’s natures law” or the “golden rule,” it just happens to be very similar to the first standard deviation of any price move. So why are you using a static reading to predict a dynamic value that changes with every candle close? For TA that actually works (if you use it correctly,) I can recommend ichimoku, though only on macro timeframes and requires a lot of reading to use properly. Mark Whistler’s books on volatility are my biggest recommendation to learn. Any strategy using WAVE PM and 3D WAVE PM are ideal, treating price strictly as reactionary, multiperiod probability distributions gives an excellent “why” in the chaos of the markets. The compression and expansion cycles can be defined to the exact period on any timeframe with the right readings. I created a write up a while back going in depth on my findings on probability distributions here. https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/ah5bxo/lets_talk_about_the_basics_of_advanced_volatility/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app I also created a google doc over the years and filled it with a few resources I’ve used to learn, I can hand it out if you dm me. Finally, don’t forget to do your FA. Macro level economic indications are incredibly important for defining the long term alignment of expectations. However never trade the news, this is an important distinction. Don’t bet that the US dollar will go down because Trump made a stupid tweet, please. What you SHOULD do is measure the strength of the move and the EXPANSION caused by the FA and identify where the compression begins afterwards. For every period of expansion, there is a predictable compressionary range that follows that is equal to the expansion. For every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction. Instead of betting on the news, bet on the reaction after the news has cooled off. That’s all that immediately comes to mind. Feel free to ask any questions.
Slightly different flavour here, which I hope will be insightful to those who take the time to read. Tonight I'm going to talk about my learnings in this market so far; my biggest mistakes; how you can avoid making them yourself; and the strategy I intend to follow from now on. It’s a long old read, but it contains months worth of knowledge, which could only be gained from first-hand experience. So pour yourself a drink, settle in, and let me take you through a brief history of my first two months in crypto.
TL;DR: Been in crypto 2 months, after years trading forex. Learnt a lot, and passing on the knowledge. Hope it helps some of you to become better investors.
CHAPTER 1: New market; new opportunity
I came into crypto with a real excitement. Finally a market that resonates with me. The ability to buy into something I believe in - something that could change the world for the better - and to make money along the way. I was excited that I could apply my trading background, something that not many in the market possess, to my advantage. I was excited at the prospect of being on the curve of early adoption, in a market that had demonstrably meteoric potential. But I was patient. I knew that I would be risking a substantial amount of money in this space, and potentially other peoples’ too, so I had to approach it sensibly. I was going to invest (hold long-term) the vast majority and day trade just a small portion. I spent many weeks researching before considering pulling the trigger even once. I didn’t come into this without a plan. But looking back on it now, it really was only scratching the surface on what a serious investment strategy should be.
CHAPTER 2: Early Strategy
In brief, my plan was to research a load of coins that I’d heard have good potential – solid projects which make unique & warranted use of blockchain technology; are disruptive to their industry; are developed by a competent & active team; and are backed by a loyal community. I shortlisted maybe 40 coins through articles, videos and general conversation, and I added them to my watchlist. Admittedly I became a bit lax in completing the deep level of research I told myself I’d do for each – scrutinizing the whitepaper became skimming the whitepaper, which then became watching a video analysis, which then became “oh that sounds interesting I’ll keep an eye on it”. But this was just a watchlist. And still an educated one.
I knew that I wanted to wait for an inevitable dip in Bitcoin’s value to enter the market, but it just wasn’t coming. $6k, $8k, $10k… the bullish momentum couldn’t be tamed. Was I missing out? Was Bitcoin going to continue its parabolic move while I sit here waiting for a dip that could never come?
LEARNING 1: There are an unlimited number of opportunities
At this stage I was ready to get involved, and I’d scouted a few alt coins that had good technical entry points approaching. Do I need to keep waiting for a good Bitcoin price even when there’s a good alt price? In short, if you’re confident enough about a trade, it doesn’t really matter what price you pay to get the BTC (or other major alt coin) needed to trade it, as long as you believe that your trade will outweigh any potential drop in Bitcoin’s value. If your trade goes up 100% and BTC’s value drops 50%, at that point you’re break even. Plus if you keep holding and BTC returns back to its previous value, now you’re in 100% profit. For me this meant that even after buying some Bitcoin at its ATH (all-time high) and having it correct over 40%, I was still in profit, because this particular trade was up over 100%. More on this later.
So I bought some Bitcoin! Not all at once – generally a decent strategy is called dollar-cost averaging. In essence, buying a little bit every week at whatever the price at the time is, so that your entry price averages out over time. A better strategy is to only buy if it’s at a good price, or when you need it for a trade setup – not just arbitrarily every week even if the price is high. But I digress, I had some Bitcoin now and I wanted to diversify. Time to buy some alts.
LEARNING 2: Every trade is a decision to have the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re using to buy it
If an alt coin is gaining value against Bitcoin, it’s better to be holding that alt coin than Bitcoin. And if it’s losing value against Bitcoin, you’d be better off keeping it as BTC. Simple, but easy to forget when you load up Coinmarketcap and see all of the price changes in USD. You’ve gone up by 4% today – great! But BTC went up 10%, so you’d have been better off holding BTC. Buying a coin is an active decision that you make to hold the coin you’re buying instead of the coin you’re selling for it, for the period of time until you close that position. So if I buy 1000 XEM using BTC, that XEM/BTC trade is me saying “I think that XEM will increase in value at a greater rate than BTC will”. If both of them increase in value but BTC does it faster, that was a sub-optimal decision.
LEARNING 3: Satoshis are your friend. Accumulate as many of them as possible
So how does one measure profit on a trade? It’s intuitive to think of it in fiat terms – how many £££ did I make? Something tangible. But really everything should be measured in the smallest unit of Bitcoin (1 satoshi = 0.00000001 BTC). It’s easier to migrate to this way of thinking if you think of your total investment as the total amount of BTC (or the other major alt coin) that you were able to buy with it. Say I invested £1000 in crypto, and with that I managed to buy 0.1 BTC – that’s my total investment. If I want to diversify and put 10% of that into each of my favourite alt coins, I’d buy 0.01 BTC worth of each of them. Let’s say Litecoin was one of them and I got 1 LTC for my 0.01 BTC. Litecoin’s rocket then fuelled up and started on its journey to the moon, and I decide to bank my profit. I now trade it back for 0.015 BTC. From 0.01 BTC to 0.015 BTC is a profit of 0.005 BTC, or 500,000 satoshis!
“But why not just measure it in £££ - that’s far less complicated?!”
Well here’s the kicker. Let’s say Bitcoin’s value plummeted over the course of that trade. I’ve got more BTC, but because the value of each one decreased, I may still have lost money. So does that mean that trade was a bad decision? Not at all. That trade was a decision between BTC and LTC, and you made the right call. LTC held its value better than BTC did, so you would have lost more if you didn’t take the trade. Profit measured in satoshis allows you to strip away the financial layer and answer the most important question – “was it a good decision to make that trade?” A gain in satoshis is always a win. A gain in £££ is not.
Taking that same scenario in which I’ve got an equal amount of my 10 favourite alt coins. Let’s say 9 out of 10 of them stay at exactly the same value, but the other one shoots to the moon on a lambo all the way to 100%. Woohoo! Shame that was only 1/10 of my portfolio - overall it’s worth 10% more now – but if I’d have invested all my money in that one coin I’d be up 100% overall. Now I’m certainly not advocating putting all your eggs in one basket. Rather, in reference to my previous learning, this helped me realised another very important point.
LEARNING 4: Understanding opportunity cost is a must
Any trade I make is not only a decision between the two coins I’m trading; it’s also a decision to buy that coin instead of any of the other coins I might be interested in. I have 0.1 BTC to spend and 10 alts I want to spend it on – should I just divide it equally? Not necessarily. If you’re super confident about a couple of them, but not so much on the others, spreading it equally doesn’t sound like such a good plan after all does it? Take your time analysing each trade / investment and rank them in order of confidence. In order of potential (risk:reward if you’re a trader). Invest more in the ones you’re more confident in. It’s a really basic point, but one that’s so often forgotten when there are so many exciting prospects out there. Holding a particular coin doesn’t just cost the price that you paid for it, it costs the opportunity to buy something else instead. One of the first things I learnt in trading was to cut your losers short and let your winners run. Why should crypto be any different? Even when you’re in a trade, every moment is an active decision to keep holding it instead of trading it for something else. Don’t blindly HODL hoping for a bad decision to improve, when there are better decisions you can take to re-coup that loss. Equally, don’t sell for a loss just because the value goes down. Re-analyse. Has anything changed? If every reason you had to buy it in the first place still applies, HODL. If something’s changed, including your confidence in it compared to other cryptos, consider switching it for a better opportunity.
So I learnt all of this in my first month – December 2017. Did I make optimal decisions all the time? Absolutely not, but with cryptos riding to all-time highs, my investors were very happy, as was I. It’s not often that you can get a 100% return on investment in just one month in a market. But it’s easy to profit in a bull market.
CHAPTER 3: It’s not all sunshine and lambos
It was around the end of December in which things started to get a bit too parabolic, and I was naturally suspicious of how long this could last. But you find yourself, inexperienced in a new market, eager to see how far you can ride the wave. The fear of missing out on further exponential gains becomes as much of a psychological challenge as taking a loss. In short, you get greedy. Highs that I had once been ecstatic with, a few days later became lows. I told my investors not to expect anything like this in future months. In my monthly summary I said “we are in perhaps the most bullish market the world has ever seen”, and I estimated that we had “a maximum of 1-2 more weeks to ride this momentum”. Prophetic, no? Well it’s easy to make predictions that come true – even a broken clock is right twice a day. What’s difficult is having enough conviction to take your own advice.
LEARNING 5: Make your rules and stick to them, no matter what
This is without a doubt the biggest thing I’ve learnt over the months. If one day you set yourself a target of £X profit – a level you’d be really happy to achieve, be that on a trade or overall – take it. Cash out as soon as you reach it and buy yourself something nice. Make it tangible. It’s easy for the world of online trading to feel gamified, but remember what you’re staking – this is real money. But it’s easier said than done. If you rise suddenly to that target I can tell you your first thought will be “whoa look at it go, I’m gonna see how much further it can get before I cash in”, rather than “mission accomplished, time to get out”. Humans are greedy. We want to take shortcuts – to our dreams, to wealth – but this isn’t a get rich quick scheme. If someone told you they could get you 10%/month gain on your savings (that triples your money every year) you’d probably bite their hand off. So why in crypto would you not be chuffed with 50%, or 20%, or 10%? Don’t move the goalposts. Decide in advance when to take profit and take it.
First off, it’s always a good idea to take out your initial investment at a level after which you’d be psychologically happy if the market goes down or up. For example, if I took out my initial investment (say £1000) when it went up 50% to £1500, and then the market went lunar and doubled the next month, I’d personally feel a bit annoyed at myself for not leaving more money in. That £1000 would’ve been £3000 had I kept it invested…shit. However if I took out my initial investment when it went up 200% - I’d now have £2000 left of my £3000 investment, and if it doubled the next month, I’d be happy with the stake I had remaining, not regretting my decision. That level can only be decided by you, based on your attitude towards risk. Obviously the higher that value is before you cash out your profits, the greater the risk you’re taking since it may never reach that level. Taking out your investment as soon as you’re happy to is a good move because from then on in you’re riding on pure profits. If the market were to crash to zero, you’d still be break even, so it’s much easier to detach yourself from the emotions involved (and we all know how emotional this market is). And if you’re a technical trader, rejoice at the fact that this market is hugely technical, and you can very often predict good levels to get out at – often doubled with buying back in cheaper. I highly recommend for everyone to spend some time learning to analyse charts - even at a basic level. It works. And for heaven's sake if you're day trading don't do what I did and "neglect" to apply basic trading principles like setting a stop loss and sizing each position at maximum ~1% risk. You can call it investing; you can call it speculative buying; but at the end of the day that's just gambling. Don't be lazy. Don't be wreckless. Apply what you've learnt in other markets - crypto is no different.
And for context, no I did not take my own advice. The correction shocked me. Not the fact that it happened, but the fact that it happened so hard and fast. At first I thought it was a healthy dip, and that the uptrend would resume soon enough – no reason to sell. But then the bears took over, and we were in a full on downwards movement. News emerged from South East Asia which caused a great deal of negative sentiment, and Bitcoin’s value tumbled (even when some of the speculation was later deemed invalid), and with that I realised how inherently linked to Bitcoin that all other cryptocurrencies are. You may dislike Bitcoin - the slow transactions; the high fees – but you can’t argue how critically important it is to this market.
LEARNING 6: 40+% market corrections are normal in crypto, but they still hurt
I neglected to mention earlier, but I have a background in trading forex. I understand market patterns, cyclicity and technical analysis such as Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci ratios. It is foolish to think that charts will continue indefinitely in a given direction – there will always be corrections and reversals. All through the correction we’ve started this year with, I have remained very optimistic. Nothing at all has changed to make any of the leading crypto projects less credible or via as future industry disruptors. This is why it’s important to do your own research on coins you invest in – so that you’re psychologically happy holding them long term through price corrections. But I’ll be honest, when Bitcoin broke down through several technical support levels a few days ago, I became apprehensive. Not even close to panic, or tempted to sell. After all I am investing long term, and I still see this as a requisite correction in a much larger up-trend. Or at least the upside potential of that outcome is comfortably worth the risk for me – it’s the opportunity of a lifetime. But even as an experienced trader, doubts can set in. All of the profits I had gained in month 1 were gone, and I have now slightly dipped into loss. As I say, I’m not selling, and my analysis is still very bullish. But HODLing is not always the best strategy.
LEARNING 7: When things are looking bearish, consider the trade to fiat
With the benefit of hindsight, and now having dedicated substantially more time to learning Elliot Wave Theory and studying crypto charts, there were a number of points at which you could have predicted a big ol’ correction was on the cards, before it fully developed. A quick ‘n dirty rule of thumb, for those of you who don’t know how to read charts, is: “Don’t buy into a parabolic market or at an all-time high – it’ll likely correct soon”. But I’d also like to add an addendum to what is a common mantra in the crypto community: “Buy the dip” – this is for day trading. If you’re intending to hold a coin long term, zoom right out and look at the entire coin’s price history. Wait for a macro scale correction, not a micro scale dip. A lot of people got excited the other day at Bitcoin rising 10% - I saw tonnes of calls saying “the correction is over” or “Bitcoin to the moon” – but when you zoom out, we’re still in a downtrend with room to go lower, and substantial resistance to get through before we can rise to new highs. Play the long game and look for long-term signals. And if you are in that subset of people who can predict an imminent correction, or indeed if you’re halfway through a correction with a good chance of it continuing, the best decision may well be to get out of the market until it’s over. Trade your positions back to fiat, and wait for clear recovery to the upside. It’s much more difficult to trade profitably in a down-trend. Most of us could have doubled our BTC holdings just by getting out of crypto before the correction and buying back in cheaper now. So make sure you have an exit plan. Know the steps that you’d need to take to get your money off exchanges / wallets and back into your bank account. Getting out of crypto doesn’t have to be a permanent move. There’s no harm in waiting things out until you’re confident again. After all, refer back to Learning 1 – there are always more opportunities.
CHAPTER 4: Moving forwards
At last, filled with learnings and plenty of inactive time spent refining my strategy, I’ve gone back to my technical analysis roots and really analysed why I’m in my positions.
LEARNING 8: Never stop analysing. You will make mistakes. Learn from them.
Does my portfolio need to be this diverse? Are my invested amounts proportional to my confidence in them? Probably not, so I’ve taken this opportunity to start shifting around. Don’t be precious about losses – losing is a natural part of trading – you only need one 10:1 winning trade to offset ten losing ones. So take some losses and make some mistakes. I’m sure glad I did, because it’s made me a much more confident and competent investor today.
And since everyone always looks around for opinions on the market, I will leave you with one bit of bullish technical insight on our King, Bitcoin. Basic Elliot Wave Theory says that markets move in ebbs and flows – 5 waves in the direction of the trend, followed by 3 waves of correction. And these waves are fractal in nature, meaning that a full 5-wave pattern forms a single larger wave within a higher degree pattern. All that being said, IF Bitcoin’s run up to its ATH in December constitutes a completed 5-wave pattern, we could consider that history as Wave 1 of a larger up-trend. Using Fibonacci extension ratios that appear in all markets (including crypto, very prominently, even with BTC), we can project the likely extensions of the Wave 3 that would come after we’re done correcting here. Based on analysis run by eSignal, a popular trading platform, the length of Wave 3 will likely reach either 1.62, 2.62 or 4.25 times the length of Wave 1. That means our Wave 3 high would take the price of a single Bitcoin to roughly $32,000, $64,000 or $98,000.
Technical analysis is very subjective, this is merely one possible outcome. But ask yourself, if you had the chance to invest in something with global reach that could make a 5x or even 10x return on your investment, what would you risk for that opportunity?
Thanks for taking the time to read, and I hope this helps some of you.
Silver is dropping: Technicals and Fundamentals (/SIU7)
Silver is dropping. A good short IMHO. Here's why:
On the D1, you can see a really beautiful, repetitive descending sinusoidal wave forming. It is respecting its channel quite nicely. Lower highs and lower lows mean a definite southbound trend. I ran a Fibonacci extension off of the last wave, and since I bow to the temple of the Fibonacci Sweet Spot (the 0.5-0.618 zone), this puts the target price firmly in the $15.48-$15.16 target range for exit. Nature Respects the Fib. Note that we are at a support line right now between $16.25-$16.18. If it breaches this, it should drop nicely. Check out this /SIU7 D1 chart Remember that Previous Price Performance Probably Predicts Pending Principal Projections.
For those of you who are new - let's learn some Forex. Metals are correlated to the JPY (Japanese Yen), gold more than silver, but both tend to follow the currency quite nicely. Yen up = metals up, and Yen dropping = metals dropping, almost to a T. Gold follows this almost rigidly, it is spooky how gold will mirror JPY almost to a tick. Now, most FX traders look at USDJPY... which means that when USDJPY drops, that means Yen is going up, which means metals should climb. Hence, metals are inversely correlated to USDJPY. USDJPY is climbing. US inflation is what everyone is jabbing about - Dollar stronk(er) this week, at least in relation to the Yen. There is a "widening of the interest rate differential between U.S. Government Bonds and Japanese Government Bonds"; as well, there is an increasing demand for higher risk assets... which straight forward means that money will move away from metals and away from the Yen, both of which are seen as safe havens in tough times. Read on: https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/usdjpy-fundamental-weekly-forecast-its-all-about-u-s-inflation-this-week-427595 Also, USDJPY produced a doji on the W1 chart, a decent reversal signal when correlated with other data. Higher time-frames produce stronger signals, and algos have more money and power than you ever will, trader..... and those AIs respect these levels very much. Check it out: https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/usd-jpy-forecast-bullish-follow-through-likely-after-last-weeks-doji-201708070413 Would love to hear other trader's thoughts. I'm short 1 contract of /SIU7. Don't coattail me without doing your own DD, if you lose money, it's your own fault, you should have stayed in school and gotten that plebe job like momma said, ya loser =) Remember that Silver is a very highly leveraged asset, one tick = $0.005 and each tick is $25.00. This means that $1.00 movement in the price of silver is worth $5,000.00 per contract!! Please protect yourself with stops and don't be afraid to take profits. Silver has tickled many a traders greed gland, usually rectally, and this has led to massive destruction more than once....
Fundamental Analysis I believe that for an Altcoin to be worth anything at all, it MUST first have technical aspects which are built with the future in mind. This is what solely determines if a cryptocurrency has the potential for the mid to long term. Even with 5 new altcoins launching everyday, you barely see 1 a month that can last even the mid-term. Then, after that I judge the coins based on 7 mediating factors; developers, community, branding/marketing, popularity/virality, novelty, infrastructure, and liquidity. For more about fundamental analysis and an explanation of these factors, read up on the first few sections in my previous post about picking and trading the next profitable altcoin. In this post, I will focus more on technical analysis and trading strategies instead. With so many coins out there, I like to use these above factors to weed out all the weaker shitcoins, and focus on altcoins which are substantially different from others, and more importantly, provide more value than other cryptocurrencies. After which, I use Technical Analysis to judge entry/exit positions for trading them. What else do you think makes a cryptocurrency fundamentally better than another, and more sustainable as a currency? Technical Analysis Many will probably agree when I say that the Altcoins market is akin to the "penny stocks" of cryptocurrencies. In this sense, most altcoin markets have much lower liquidity, but have much higher volatility. Since there are over 200 different cryptocurrency markets to date, I prefer to narrow down my list of altcoins to a small handful, and buy under-valued coins or trade the breakouts. You're going to find it really tough to be watching more than 5 altcoins at the same time, so I highly suggest keeping your list small, and adapt your watchlist to the fast changing markets. If you're new to technical analysis, here's a really good beginner's video on daytrading Penny Stocks, which also explains the basics of chart reading and an introduction to basic trading jargon that I'll be using throughout this post. The important concepts to take note of are resistances & supports, breakouts that coincide with high volume, and the general idea that "what goes up must come down". See video here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYK2a77TjvU So after you get the basics sorted out, you should be ready to learn how to trade! I'm gonna break this intermediate technical analysis tutorial down into five main portions, and have compiled videos from other trading experts to give even beginners a better overall idea, and teach you all you need to know to devise your own Bitcoin & Altcoins trading strategy. 1. Top Down Analysis Firstly, lets look at the top down analysis method of reading charts. I always begin by trying to understand the market from a bird eye's view. Compare both charts from a long term period (e.g. 1d) against one from a shorter period (e.g. 15m) to get a holistic view of the market. This will help give you a general perspective of market trends, while peaks & troughs give you an idea of market resistances & supports. Use these basic resistance & support levels to judge entry/exit prices. In general, previous high and low points are new resistances or support depending on where the price is, and points where u can see big breakouts will be the new short term resistance/support. To get a better idea of what I mean, watch these videos by Jason Stapleton who explains top down analysis, resistances & supports, and structure. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M9yCc7lD21Q https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tJmMU-8yicM 2. Retracements The concept of retracements is, in my opinion, the most important one that any trading enthusiast must grasp in order to understand how the markets flow. In essence, a retracement is a temporary price movement against the established trend, and helps us understand that the markets move in wave patterns as highlighted by the Elliott Wave Theory. One way to look at it, as highlighted by this video below, is that most price-actions follow a pullback rule to fibonacci retracement levels (38%, 50%, 62%). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7VSWqM0jfIQ The most important concept to take away from this is "what goes up must come down"; that price movements in one direction are always followed by retracements in the opposite direction. Of course, not all movements will follow the same pullbacks, and these levels should only be used as a guide. Here's another video: "Understanding Fibonacci retracement lines: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzHjxPxGzMw". So the question then is, how will we know if this counter-movement price action is a retracement or a reversal? There is no way to say for certain...
3. Trading on Volume Another important concept you need to understand is that large price movements almost always coincide with high trading volume. With this in mind, this is where the liquidity of an altcoin also comes into play; the higher the trade volume of an altcoin, the lower the spreads, and the more likely you will be able to make some profitable trades from it. In general, the trade volume is a good indicator of, and is proportional to the popularity of the altcoin at the current time. Apart from the actual trading volume itself, another good indicator is the change in volume over time; if you realize that the trading volume of an altcoin has been steadily increasing over the last few days, it could be an indication that a big price movement is coming up. 4. Breakout Patterns The last concept I want to share is breakout patterns. Although most people are familiar with this concept, many do not know how to profit from them. This is one of the best tools to use for planning your entry positions, while there are various ways to do so, which are highlighted by these first two videos below: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YZ4ORz-UJ0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gN-6D8nH0E 5. Advanced Trading Strategies Now comes the fun part: how can we take all that we've learnt so far and put into good use for trading Bitcoin/Altcoins? Here are some pointers for you:
What we've learnt is more of a tool to make better entry and exit positions.
Keep in mind trading the bitcoin & altcoin markets as you watch the rest of these more advanced videos, and I hope you'll be able to gain some insights to build up your Bitcoins & Altcoins trading strategy.
Granted, forex & equities trading is much different from bitcoin or altcoin markets. However, the fundamentals are the same, and you should learn to draw lessons from the strategies talked about in the videos to supplement your bitcoin/altcoins trading strategy.
In the next videos, more advanced trading strategies and chart patterns will be shared. These strategies may seem very specific, but my goal is to give you better understanding of how these analysis tools are used, and to give you an idea of how different tools can be used to develop a single trading setup. The specifics are not important; what I hope to achieve is to open up your minds to new ideas, expand your trading knowledge, and ultimately encourage you to explore a diverse variety of trading strategies. Read up more on some of the main ideas discussed:
Is there a decent price action trading system for beginners?
Last summer, I finished the babypips "school" and I've been fiddling around on a demo account ever since without really getting anywhere. From the extensive amount of reading I've done on Forex over the months, pretty much everyone seems to be saying that being able to trade off a "naked" chart with S/R and fib levels with the occasional use of an indicator for confirmation is the best way to be successful. I understand many of the trade setups based on ratio patterns, Fibonacci levels, etc. but I don't have a good system to apply it. In other words, I don't have a good set of rules to say "If X pattern forms with criteria A, B and C, enter the trade with a stop of A and a TP of B" or something along those lines. For those of you who trade off price action, do you have any suggestions for a system of rules like this? edit: probably should have looked at that sticky first
Hey all, I realize this is a bit of a read but I figured hopefully some of you might get something out of it. I've recently started a blog on trading as I love writing and it's one of my passions. Regardless I'm not huge on self promotion so I'll simply post it here and if you're interested you're welcome to PM me for the link otherwise I'd love to start a conversation on the topic here! Please share your thoughts on the subject, I definitely don't claim to be an expert, these are just some observations of mine. =) The general consensus within the Forex community on the understanding of psychological levels is one that is both very basic, and relatively black and white. I would argue that in my trading I have discovered psychological levels tend to be much more encompassing, slightly more subjective, and incredibly useful in helping traders determine overall market sentiment and trader bias under the direction of accompanying techniques. Although psychological levels as a trading tool are relatively misunderstood from a technical perspective, the fact remains, when employed properly they can be one of the few truly effective leading indicators under the confirmation of post candle-close analysis. Keep in mind the term "leading indicator" is one I use with caution as I find all too often technical analysts refer to the term in situations where it ought not be. If you take the concept of a true "leading indicator" at face value - "an indication of potential price movement [continuation, congestion, or reversion], without preconceived reference to prior movement" it's clear that such an indicator can be argued if not impossible, at the very least extremely elusive. This is where an area of interpretation comes in as to what is considered "leading". For most, "leading" constitutes a level or price or volatility in which previous market dynamics have suggested future pattern. Levels of support and resistance, trend continuation, Fibonacci sequence, pivot points, and psychological levels often act as such. Every one of these methods aside from psychological levels rely entirely on the recognition of former pattern and or the examination of price periods for the purpose of predicting future movement such as pull backs and price extensions. As a result I think it's safe to say you would have to assume there must be a catch. As we all know, there's is clearly no such thing as a holy grail so where does the psychological level fall short? Psychologicals work entirely on the assumption that fellow traders and institutions will be looking at key levels as areas of interest. This is the primary reason these levels can not be used to predict price movement, they are simply useful as a potential indicator of interest from coexisting market participants. As a result, if you intend to take advantage of this information, it's important to ensure you don't fall into the trap of viewing these levels as points of support and resistance in the same way you would after plotting a range as they simply are not. Unlike the majority of indicators, each occurrence of a psychological level should be seen as an independent event. For those familiar with the equities market I've found the one event that best mirrors this phenomenon is that of small-cap "earnings" - a specific day and time within the financial quarter in which a stock is expected to react according to its results and future projections. Unlike calendar events within the currency markets, these small-cap events are not large enough to cause significant market movement among associated instruments. I think it's of importance to keep in mind that psychologicals do not necessarily have to refer to specific price points at which heightened market participation is expected. If rich player participation is in fact the key factor in determining what is a psychological indicator, other market occurrences should be of value. Timing, for example, should be of interest. The open and close of particular sessions in relation to volatility expansion and contraction. Fellow participants expect these events and address their positions or positioning for the upcoming session accordingly. Once again the particulars of each event are independent but the expectancy of a change to some degree is nearly guaranteed. Trading psychological levels can certainly have value if utilized properly, but exactly like all other indicators it's crucial to have a tangible understanding of all elements of the tool long before you throw caution to the wind (not that you ever should). Unlike a moving average or an oscillator where you can examine the pieces that make up the indicator, psychological levels require you to dig a little deeper if you hope to effectively make use of them within your trading plan.
AUD/CAD Technical Analysis. Potential for a long term set up.
AUD/CAD's recently caught my attention, for a few reasons. Going to attempt some fundies, and then look at some tech for setups. The Loonie
CAD has taken a thrashing in the last few months, making it the standout in terms of low correlation with just about anything. This is due mostly to Mark Carney's departure and the BOC changing its stance on interest rates from hawkish to neutral. This selling might be overdone.
This breakdown in correlation is a symptom of a much larger issue - the divorce of price action from risk trends. The weakening in CAD is mostly a result of large funds and corporates deleveraging, and getting rid of their Loonies as quickly as possible to avoid fallout from the above.
The Loonie is, however, correlated with oil prices
USOil, D1 http://i.imgur.com/AIUxB3f.png Looks pretty bullish to me. Any serious crisis could spark a lot of volatility, pushing price through the 110 ceiling. It's unlikely, granted, but it's difficult to see a drastic fall in oil demand any time soon. On the other hand, we have the Australian dollar
I'm very bearish, but I know the selling is overdone.
AUD/USD has lost a lot of its correlation with Gold lately, but it still correlates reasonably well to any decent commodities index:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6y9Vz7b/ That's not a great chart, but you can clearly see what's happening there. Generally in a downward trending range, which looks rather overbought at the moment. A break to the upside would be extremely bullish for the Aussie, but that's not very likely given rumours of slowing demand from China and a declining gold price. I know there are a few gold bugs lurking in this sub who are going to argue with me, but I'm pretty bearish on Gold as well.
So in a nutshell my bias could be summed up as neutral to bullish CAD, neutral to bearish AUD. Here's the AUD/CAD daily: http://i.imgur.com/y5acVLB.png The top pink rectangle is an absolutely pivotal supply/demand area that has long since been breached. We're currently within a downward channel (much cleaner than AUD/USD's) after failing above the 50% retracement of the year's decline and an attempt to clear this zone. The orange line is the 100 Month moving average, but don't get too excited - it hasn't done a great job of providing major support or resistance for as long as I have chart data. The current channel, if it continues, will bring us very neatly to the rising line connecting the July 2010 and July 2013 lows, as well as a strong demand area, and roughly the 0.382 retracement of the move from 2010 to 2013. This area is the last chance for bulls. At the point marked with a green circle on my chart I'll be watching price action very carefully. It might take a few days to play out, or it could happen very quickly, but price will probably give us an indication of where it will be heading in 2014 if it gets to that level. There are two trades:
A bounce. I prefer this from a technical perspective, but it doesn't align with my fundamental bias. I'll trade what I see though and if a spike low is formed around this area I will enter long with a stop below that spike, and targeting 0.9700, parity and 1.0500.
A break of the 0.9250 area and retest and failure at this level opens up a lot of downside targets - noted in green as fibonacci extensions. If this happens, the challenge will be judging if there is sufficient volatility to give the move continuation, and finding a suitable level to trade against. Downside targets are 0.900, 0.8800 and 0.8600
Fibonacci levels are always projection levels. Fibonacci Expansion Levels or Fibonacci Extension levels follow the same logic as Fibonacci retracements. The most common levels used for Fibonacci Expansion levels are 1.618% and than 2.618% (some traders use 123.6%; 138.2%, 150.0%, 161.8%, 200% and 261.8%).Metatrader platform has fib extension ... Important Fibonacci Levels in Forex. Fibonacci levels are extremely important for a correct Elliott count, and the patterns Elliott identified are strongly related to these levels. Regardless of whether an impulsive wave or a corrective one forms, Fibonacci levels are the decisive factor for correctly counting waves. Elliott identified many types of patterns that evolve around Fibonacci levels ... The average retail forex trader should be familiar with Fibonacci retracement levels, and may even use it regularly within their trading program. In this article, we will dive into a somewhat lesser known Fibonacci tool that you can also use to find hidden levels of support and resistance. We will introduce you to the Fibonacci extension tool and discuss some technique on how to incorporate it ... Fibonacci extension levels are drawn past the 100% level. So what is the main use of Fibonacci extensions then? Well, it is used by many forex traders to determine the price levels where they can set their profit targets. How To Draw A Fibonacci Extension In A Downtrend. We know that in a downtrend, prices do not keep falling all the time. There will be times when price will stop falling and ... You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks. First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on any of the retracement levels. This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels. Pretty neat, huh? Let’s go ... The next step is supplementing your forex trading strategy with extension levels. Extensions use Fibonacci numbers and patterns to determine profit taking points. Extensions continue past the 100% mark and indicate possible exits in line with the trend. For the purposes of using Fibonacci numbers for day trading forex, the key extension points ... Common Fibonacci extension levels are 61.8%, 100%, 161.8%, 200%, and 261.8% In the previous example of the EUR/USD, the price passed the previous Swing High and made a new high at 1.4648. But what ... How to calculate Fibonacci retracement and extension levels Three most used Fibonacci retracement levels are 0.382 or 38.2%, 0.500 (50%) and 0.618 (61.8%). Three most used Fibonacci extension levels are 0.618, 1.000 and 1.618. Also 1.382 extension can be applied as well. Let's take a look at the next picture: In the example above we are in the ... Last Updated on July 9, 2020 by Mark Ursell. This article explains how to calculate Fibonacci extensions in Excel and how forex traders use them. This is a follow up to How to Calculate and use Fibonacci Retracements in Forex Trading.. The first section looks at the Fibonacci sequence and how the extension levels are calculated. Fibonacci Extension Levels are: 0.618, 1.000, 1.618 — three the most important levels Fibonacci extension levels are used as profit taking levels. So, what we will learn today is how to apply Fibonacci tool and how to interpret results that we see on the screen. All Forex brokers (see Forex brokers list) will always have Fibonacci tool ...
HOW TO ADD EXTENTION LEVELS TO FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT ON ...
As currency pairs fluctuate in the ever changing forex markets, it’s important to be able to forecast support and resistance levels, and where an exchange rate might reverse. Determining where ... Fibonacci Trading Retracement & Extension Traden für Anfänger deutsch Ich zeige Dir wie das Fibonacci Trading funktioniert. Ich gehe auf das Retracement ... How do you use Fibonacci retracement? Learn the analysis on how to find best trading signals at Fibonacci retracement and extension levels to find strong sup... All about Trading in Forex and Binary Option Marked. HOW TO ADD EXTENTION LEVELS TO FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT ON MT4. ----- ADD THE NUMBERS BE... Free Training: 3 - Part Reversal Series - https://goo.gl/QKaxzV Advanced EAP Training Program - https://goo.gl/5cP1Z5 - More videos about predictive analysis... How to use fibonacci retracement in forex. These are the most important Fibonacci retracement and extension levels to draw for day and swing trading. Learn t...